全球与中国金融市场之波动与失衡：未来的图景

　　时间：2018年05月03日19:00-21:00

　　地点：北京大学汇丰商学院401教室

　　主办方：北大汇丰风险管理与保险研究中心

==【点击报名】

讲座嘉宾

　　Didier Sornette 教授

　　是瑞士苏黎世联邦理工大学（ETH Zurich）企业风险教授，瑞士金融研究院（Swiss Finance Institute）金融教授，全球金融危机监测站主任，美国促进科学会院士、世界创新基金会院士。Sornette教授在复杂系统与风险管理领域是世界级的专家，运用严谨的数据驱动的数理统计分析方法，对复杂系统不稳定性和各类极端风险进行识别、控制和预测。在众多研究成果中，他以对“金融泡沫”的研究尤其出名，曾成功预测到2007年房地产泡沫破裂、08年石油泡沫破裂、09年上证指数泡沫破裂、15年瑞朗脱钩欧元、15年中国股灾等多次市场巨变。他还将成果成功应用到了地震预测、网络信息安全、社会网络、核安全、医学等一系列复杂系统中。Sornette教授发表了800余篇论文，出版了7本专著，被引次数超过35000次。他还曾在多家世界知名航空航天企业、银行、基金和再保险公司担任过专家顾问等角色，包括美国银行首席风险顾问，美国洛斯阿拉莫斯国家实验室专家顾问，法国再保险SCOR科学基金会董事会成员等。

　　内容梗概

　　In the late 1970s to beginning 1980s, an epoch changing transition occurred, unnoticed by most. This transition corresponds to a change from a productivity-fueled growth that was seen in the 1950s and 1960s to what I will refer to as the regime of the “illusion of the perpetual money machine”. The result has been a succession of a number of massive bubbles and crashes, all developing jointly and feeding on each other until 2008. The bad news is that, since the great crisis and recession of 2008 and following aftershocks, the spirit of a “perpetual money machine” has been further developed into a regime of very moderate growth at the cost of ever increasing relative debt. This “new normal” heralds a period of global growing inequality and inter-generation conflicts, as well as grooms social crises and even more serious disruptions and conflicts. This situation may be further aggravated in the next decade by an increase in financialization, through exchange-traded-funds (ETFs), speed and automation, through algorithmic trading and public debt, and through growing unfunded liabilities. We conclude that, to get out of this catch-22 situation, we should first better manage and understand the incentive structures in our society. Second, we need to focus our efforts on our real economy and launch massive programs to support really disruptive and creative innovations, which come both with enormous risks and rewards. Here, the public sector has a fundamental role, as it had during the previous industrial revolution and the economic boom following WWII. We need a WWII-type effort in R&D and innovation to rebook the economies of the World. In this respect, China seems particularly well positioned as we will overview.

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